The New England Patriots and their non-existent offense roll into the Steel City tonight to take on Mitch Trubisky and the Pittsburgh Steelers as 6-point road pups, and TNF odds are giving us a total that would make a service academy game blush.
With all the eyes on the New England offense, the Pats’ defense has been elite since the bye and worth backing vs. a Pittsburgh offense that came back to earth on Sunday and will be without Kenny Pickett — another reason the NFL odds pegged this total so low.
I break down the Week 14 odds and offer my free NFL picks for the Patriots vs. Steelers on Thursday, December 7.
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Patriots vs Steelers odds
Patriots vs Steelers predictions
Kenny Pickett wasn’t a Top 10 quarterback by any means, but he looked much better in Week 12 without Matt Canada and was on his way to a decent day last week in the rain before an ankle injury forced his exit. He had surgery yesterday and will concede QB duties to the one and only Mitch Trubisky, who finished 11-for-17 for 117 yards and one TD with no interceptions.
This was already a bottom-third offense and the switch to Trubisky is not a lateral one, hence the move from Pittsburgh -6.5 to -6. The Steelers could also be without starting guard Isaac Seumalo who exited last week.
It’s looking grim for this Pittsburgh offense which is in a tough spot vs. a defense that has allowed just 26 points over the last three weeks and held the Bolts to just 29 rushing yards on 24 carries last week.
The Patriots defense has given up the least amount of points since Week 9 and haven’t won a single game. 😬 pic.twitter.com/n7FxBMw8Tc
— theScore Bet (@theScoreBet) December 5, 2023
I’m assuming Bill Belichick and his defense are going to take away the Pittsburgh run game that has been decent of late as Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are rushing for 5.1 yards per tote over the last three games, which is tied for the top rate over that stretch. They’ll be running into the league’s No. 1 rush defense since Week 11 and possibly without their best run-blocker in Seumalo.
That means it’ll be up to Trubisky to top a Pittsburgh team total of 18.5, and that has me hitting the Under. It’s a short week to prep vs. New England Patriots defense that has held the last three opposing QBs to 602 yards and one TD while also allowing four total red-zone trips.
In his three appearances for the Steelers this year, Trubisky has completed less than 60% of his passes and has a 5.6 YPA while throwing a pair of picks on 49 passes.
Ultimately, this offense has scored 17 or fewer points in seven of its 12 games this season — including three straight — that will be turning to its backup QB on a short week (possibly without a key O-line starter) and facing the No. 1 defense over the last month of football.
Everyone wants to laugh at the Patriots offense, but Pittsburgh isn’t that much better and this is a bad matchup where the Pats will likely take away the Steeler’s strength and ask Trubisky to beat them.
My best bet: Steelers team total Under 18.5 (-112 at FanDuel) 25% live boost availablePicks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Patriots vs Steelers same-game parlay
Steelers team total Under 18.5Patriots defense anytime touchdown
+1,971 at FanDuel
I don’t see how the Pittsburgh defense can be paying +650 to score but the Patriots are nearly double that. Trubisky has two picks this year on 49 passes alone and seven picks on 229 passes while in Pittsburgh.
The Pats won’t let the Steelers run and Mitch is going to have to drop back to beat this defense. Pittsburgh has allowed two defensive TDs this year, and I can’t see either offense doing much here but New England team defense to score is too long at this price.
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